Following the one-sided results in the New York presidential primaries, the principal remaining drama is whether Donald Trump will get to the 1,237 delegates that he needs to ensure nomination on the first ballot and what will happen if he doesn’t. At the moment, the online prediction markets are divided but slightly tilted in Mr. Trump’s favor. Below are a few charts that illustrate this. For the Morning Joe clip, click here.
On the most immediate open question of whether Trump will get the 1,237 needed delegates, the betting markets believe (narrowly) that he won’t. There is a 66% probability that he will fall short and a 55% probability that he will end up somewhere between 1,150 and 1,236 delegates. That leaves a 34% probability that he will get above 1,237 delegates. This corresponds to the view of many political analysts — Trump needs to win 57% of the remaining delegates to get to 1,237.
Even though the market doesn’t think Trump will get to 1,237 committed delegates, it still — by another narrow margin –- believes he will be nominated on the first ballot. This is a substantially higher percentage than the odds before the New York primary. Why does the market think he won’t get to 1,237 committed delegates before the primaries end with California on June 7 but it still believes he will avoid a brokered convention? Presumably because the market believes he will somehow get enough converts between June 7 and July 18 (the day of the convention) to avoid a second ballot.
Putting the two charts together, Trump’s odds of winning the Republican nomination are now at 68%. That is well above the level he fell to after the Wisconsin primary, although still below the 83% level he reached in early March.