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We May Be on Track for a Recession Just as the 2024 Campaign Kicks Off

Orginally published in the New York Times. The debate over whether the recent surge in inflation is transitory or permanent has been settled. Now the question is whether the Federal Reserve can tame increasing inflationary turbulence and bring the economy to a soft touchdown. Mounting evidence suggests a hard landing — in other words, a recession. We […]

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When Inflation Meets a War

Originally published in the New York Times. While the extraordinarily strict sanctions imposed on Russia constitute an admirable policy response to its appalling invasion of Ukraine, we should not be complacent about the potential boomerang effect on the global economy. The shunning of Russian petroleum has already caused oil prices to jump. Prices of corn […]

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Biden Keeps Blaming the Supply Chain for Inflation. That’s Dishonest.

Originally published in the New York Times. In an interview with Lester Holt of NBC last week, President Biden hewed closely to his talking points on inflation, which over the past 12 months has risen at its fastest rate in 40 years. “The reason for the inflation is the supply chains were cut off,” he […]

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The New York Times: How Project 2025 Would Change the Country

When Donald Trump takes the debate stage on Tuesday, he will doubtless again try to disavow Project ...

The New York Times: Don’t Take Trump’s Word for It. Check the Data.

For more than 90 minutes last week, Donald Trump gave a rambling speech accepting the Republican nom...

The New York Times: Biden’s Get-Tough-on-China Tariffs May Backfire

The tide of globalization is receding, at least from American shores. Two successive presidents have...

The New York Times: What Trump Would Do To Our Economy

Originally published in The New York Times. Much to fear about another Donald Trump presidency: ...

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