Donald Trump took to the stage in North Carolina Wednesday to outline his economic program. As usual, his 75-minute-long performance included a mix of a formal address and a semi-hysterical rant, which, also as usual, included a mix of fact and fiction. He claimed that during his presidency, we took in hundreds of billions of dollars from tariffs on Chinese imports (false: It was just $89 billion). He said mortgage rates are 10% to 11% (false: They are around 7%, depending on duration). He claimed we’ve never had inflation as high as in last three years (false: He should well remember the 1970s and early 1980s).
Perhaps his most audacious claim was that during his presidency, we had “the strongest economy in history.” Not only was the economy not the strongest in history; it wasn’t even as strong as it has been during Joe Biden’s presidency. Whether adjusted for Covid or not, economic growth was stronger under Biden than under Trump. Excluding the effects of Covid, the economy expanded at an average annual rate of 2.6% under Trump but at a 3.5% rate under Biden.
Job creation shows a similar trajectory. Excluding Covid, Trump’s economy added an average of 182,000 jobs a month; Biden has grown the employment rolls at a 271,000 rate.
Then there’s energy. Trump claimed that when he left office, we were energy independent and that we aren’t anymore. That is the opposite of the truth. Yes, our level of oil imports decreased during his term, as part of a steady improvement in our energy improvement that began in the mid-2000s. But it was only last year that we finally became a net exporter of oil for the first time since at least before 1950.
Trump also attacked Biden for encouraging imports of oil from Venezuela, something he is oddly focused on. He’s correct that Venezuelan oil is very dirty and therefore, particularly bad for the environment. But again, he has his facts mixed up. The amount of oil that we import from Venezuela has fallen dramatically under Biden compared to its level under Trump.
Finally, he dwelled at length as he generally does on crime and immigration, linking the two – as he also generally does even though there is no linkage. First, violent crime has dropped 26% during Biden’s term in office, to the lowest level since at least before 2009. Which, of course, means that crime is substantially lower than it was when Trump left office. Moreover, violent crime when Trump left office was almost exactly where it was when he arrived.
As for the role immigrants play in crime, legal immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than native-born Americans and undocumented immigrants commit crimes at a substantially lower rate than either of the other two groups (which isn’t surprising – undocumented immigrants don’t want to get deported.)
